From a Burkina Faso spark to a flame: Could this be the start of the African Spring?

After a couple of years away from the blog, i'm back in Africa and back writing! Karibu www.developingmedic.blogspot.com

A week is a long time in African politics, and in a continent which has seen 6 coups attempts in the past 3 years, this week may prove to be no different. But, given the democratic wave that spread through the Middle East in 2010, the bwana kubwa in power and sideline spectators would do well to keep a watchful eye on proceedings.

The most dramatic and ongoing reporting this week comes from Burkina Faso, where protestors have entered and set light to the parliament building ending the 27 year tenure of Blaise Compaoré. They may have succeeded in this end, but uncertainty reigns as a military power struggle develops in his wake. (see @joepenney/twitter for excellent set of photos)

Less widely reported, as its President, Michael Sata, passed away aged 77 from a mystery illness, post independence Zambia quietly turned 50. The world waited with baited breath for the shock that never came, as Guy Scott became (aside from Mauritania) the first white African President in 30 years. From his modest Lusaka home, Kenneth Kaunda, the 90 year old meditating, vegan and occasionally tearful first president of Zambia became the first liberator to watch his country turn 50. Despite his mild-mannered, humanist beliefs his Presidency was only one year less than the ousted Blaise Compaore, until his one party socialist state gave way on more peaceful terms to general elections in 1991. In a healthy reflection, Zambia is now on its 3^rd different party to attain power since then.

The Burkina Faso coup has highlighted for many the ongoing African Leadership conundrum which, however you look at it sees a bleak outlook. 10 countries hold heads of state for over 20 years with several more waiting in the wings to reach that figure. The coup tells us that one certainty is that, at some point, things will change and this includes who runs your country.  This week’s news reminds us just two of the different ways this can happen. For the remainder in power how many of the esteemed leaders will step-aside gracefully, be violently overthrown, install puppet governments or even die clutching onto the last vestiges of their power remains to be see. 

 But, to return to the headline question, could this be the start of the African Spring? More than likely, the answer is no. Independent and social media penetration is still too low in most sub-saharan African countries for sustained movements to develop from the Burkina Faso spark, and the stranglehold these long-standing, incumbent leaders hold in many places is vice-like. It should however act as a timely reminder to those in power, should they truly hold the best interests of their country at heart, how not to do it.